Padres at Mets
Last play · Luis Rengifo strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
SD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (inning 8) — +12% Mets
2Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Gavin Sheets scores.1–2
1Luis Robert Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Francisco Lindor scores.0–2
1Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. A.J. Ewing scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
