Nationals at Mets
Last play · Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Cristian Pache scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 3rd.
Win probability
Mets100%
WSH 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+126 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brady House homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Andrew Pinckney scores. Andrés Chaparro scores. (inning 6) — -46% Nationals
9Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Cristian Pache scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 3rd.4–5
9Francisco Alvarez doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Andrew Pinckney. Brett Baty scores. Cristian Pache to 3rd.4–4
6Carson Benge homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.4–3
6Brady House homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Andrew Pinckney scores. Andrés Chaparro scores.4–2
4Andrés Chaparro homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
1Jared Young doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Andrew Pinckney. A.J. Ewing scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Carson Benge to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
