Padres at Mets
Last play · Austin Hays grounds into a double play, second baseman Marcus Semien to first baseman Jared Young. Gavin Sheets out at 2nd. Austin Hays out at 1st.
Win probability
Mets100%
SD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 4) — +22% Mets
9Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Luis Rengifo scores. Luis Campusano to 3rd.2–4
8Jared Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge to 3rd.1–4
8Bo Bichette reaches on a fielder's choice. A.J. Ewing scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd. Bo Bichette to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Sung-Mun Song.1–3
5Fernando Tatis Jr. doubles (26) on a line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Xander Bogaerts scores.1–2
4Carson Benge homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Bo Bichette scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
