Padres at Mets
Last play · Bo Bichette strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
SD 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 1 NYM
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-116 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Cronenworth scores. (inning 5) — -21% Padres
9Manny Machado homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.5–2
8Luis Robert Jr. homers (7) on a line drive to center field.4–2
7Ty France singles on a line drive to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Jase Bowen scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.4–1
5Luis Torrens homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
5Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Cronenworth scores.3–0
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
