Brewers at Mets
Last play · Christopher Morel reaches on a fielder's choice. Francisco Lindor scores. Carson Benge to 3rd. Luis Robert Jr. to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman David Hamilton.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-159 / +148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Yelich doubles (20) on a line drive to left fielder A.J. Ewing. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd. (inning 9) — -38% Brewers
10Christopher Morel reaches on a fielder's choice. Francisco Lindor scores. Carson Benge to 3rd. Luis Robert Jr. to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman David Hamilton.2–3
9Christian Yelich doubles (20) on a line drive to left fielder A.J. Ewing. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd.2–2
6Luis Robert Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
5Francisco Lindor homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
4Luis Lara singles on a ground ball to left fielder A.J. Ewing. William Contreras scores. Luis Lara to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
