Brewers at Mets
Last play · A.J. Ewing grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 7 – 1 NYM
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-154 / +144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Frelick singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Andrew Vaughn scores. David Hamilton scores. Cooper Pratt to 2nd. (inning 2) — -18% Brewers
6Christian Yelich singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Sal Frelick scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.8–1
4Francisco Alvarez singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd.7–1
4Brice Turang homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Cooper Pratt scores. Garrett Mitchell scores.7–0
2Garrett Mitchell singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Cooper Pratt scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd.4–0
2Sal Frelick singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Andrew Vaughn scores. David Hamilton scores. Cooper Pratt to 2nd.3–0
2David Hamilton singles on a line drive to left fielder Brett Baty. Luis Lara scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
