Astros at Mets
Last play · Luis Robert Jr. called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets0%
HOU 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daulton Varsho singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd. (inning 6) — -31% Astros
6Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Jose Altuve scores. Daulton Varsho to 2nd.3–1
6Daulton Varsho singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.2–1
4Carson Benge doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Francisco Lindor scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
