Astros at Mets
Last play · Taylor Trammell lines out to center fielder A.J. Ewing.
Win probability
Mets100%
HOU 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 4 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Young triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Taylor Trammell. Juan Soto scores. Carson Benge scores. (inning 5) — +18% Mets
8Francisco Alvarez doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Jared Young scores. Marcus Semien scores.2–6
8Yordan Alvarez homers (37) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
5Jared Young triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Taylor Trammell. Juan Soto scores. Carson Benge scores.1–4
5Juan Soto singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Taylor Trammell. Francisco Lindor scores.1–2
1Jared Young singles on a fly ball to right fielder Taylor Trammell. Francisco Lindor scores. Carson Benge to 2nd.1–1
1Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Carson Benge. Jeremy Peña scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
