Brewers at Mets
MIL8–
NYM2Last play · Marcus Semien grounds out softly, catcher Gary Sánchez to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 5 – 2 NYM
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-198 / +184
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Chourio homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. David Hamilton scores. (inning 2) — -15% Brewers
8Jackson Chourio homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Cooper Pratt scores.8–2
6Cooper Pratt out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Luis Robert Jr. Joey Ortiz scores.6–2
5Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Christopher Morel singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Jared Young scores.5–2
5Jared Young doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Luis Lara. Luis Robert Jr. scores.5–1
5William Contreras grounds out, third baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Jared Young. Jackson Chourio scores. Luis Lara to 2nd.5–0
2Jackson Chourio homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. David Hamilton scores.4–0
1Gary Sánchez grounds into a force out, second baseman Marcus Semien to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Luis Lara scores. Andrew Vaughn out at 2nd. Gary Sánchez to 1st.2–0
1Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Jackson Chourio scores. Luis Lara to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.