Royals at Yankees
Last play · Jonathan India strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
KC 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 2 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+149 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan McMahon homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Ben Rice scores. (inning 8) — +34% Yankees
8Ryan McMahon homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Ben Rice scores.2–4
8Vinnie Pasquantino homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
6Vinnie Pasquantino grounds out, first baseman Ben Rice to pitcher Cam Schlittler. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.1–2
4Ben Rice homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Cody Bellinger scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
