Royals at Yankees
Last play · Isaac Collins strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
KC 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 7 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Amed Rosario homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. J.C. Escarra scores. (inning 3) — +23% Yankees
9Michael Massey doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Amed Rosario. Tyler Tolbert scores. Carter Jensen scores.4–13
8Randal Grichuk out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Ryan McMahon scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.2–13
7J.C. Escarra triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Randal Grichuk scores. José Caballero scores.2–12
7Carter Jensen homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Jac Caglianone scores.2–10
6Cody Bellinger homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Amed Rosario scores.0–10
6Amed Rosario singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. José Caballero scores.0–8
4Cody Bellinger singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. J.C. Escarra scores.0–7
4J.C. Escarra doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. José Caballero scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
