Orioles at Yankees
Last play · Samuel Basallo lines out to right fielder Aaron Judge.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BAL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 5 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (11) on a line drive to right center field. Trent Grisham scores. Paul Goldschmidt scores. (inning 2) — +21% Yankees
8Aaron Judge singles on a ground ball to center fielder Leody Taveras. Austin Wells scores. Ben Rice to 2nd.2–7
7Amed Rosario singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.2–6
7Dylan Beavers grounds out softly, pitcher Fernando Cruz to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Pete Alonso scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd.2–5
2Ben Rice homers (11) on a line drive to right center field. Trent Grisham scores. Paul Goldschmidt scores.1–5
2José Caballero homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
2Pete Alonso homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Cody Bellinger doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
