Royals at Yankees
Last play · Isaac Collins called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees100%
KC 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 7 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Ben Rice scores. (inning 1) — +17% Yankees
5Trent Grisham homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Cody Bellinger scores. Paul Goldschmidt scores.0–7
2Ben Rice homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–4
1Austin Wells out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Isaac Collins. Cody Bellinger scores.0–3
1Aaron Judge homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Ben Rice scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
