Orioles at Yankees
Last play · Blaze Alexander strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BAL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 3 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+229 / -286
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Ben Rice scores. (inning 3) — +23% Yankees
8Jasson Domínguez doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.3–11
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Paul Goldschmidt scores.3–10
8Paul Goldschmidt singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Ryan McMahon scores. José Caballero scores.3–9
8Trent Grisham out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Austin Wells scores.3–7
8Jasson Domínguez homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–6
6Ryan McMahon singles on a ground ball to first baseman Coby Mayo. Jasson Domínguez scores.3–4
4Jeremiah Jackson grounds into a double play, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Tyler O'Neill scores. Coby Mayo to 3rd. Leody Taveras out at 2nd. Jeremiah Jackson out at 1st.3–3
4Leody Taveras singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Pete Alonso scores. Tyler O'Neill to 3rd. Coby Mayo to 2nd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
