Rangers at Yankees
Last play · Justin Foscue grounds out, third baseman Ryan McMahon to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TEX 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 3 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan McMahon homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Paul Goldschmidt scores. (inning 2) — +26% Yankees
9Jake Burger grounds out, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Ezequiel Duran scores.4–7
8Paul Goldschmidt homers (2) on a line drive to right center field.3–7
7Cody Bellinger doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Andrew McCutchen. Ryan McMahon scores. José Caballero scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd.3–6
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.3–4
2Ryan McMahon homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Paul Goldschmidt scores.3–3
1Cody Bellinger doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Andrew McCutchen. Aaron Judge scores.3–1
1Danny Jansen grounds out, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.3–0
1Ezequiel Duran singles on a fly ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Corey Seager scores. Josh Jung to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
