Orioles at Yankees
Last play · Adley Rutschman grounds out, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to pitcher Paul Blackburn.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BAL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+189 / -232
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 1) — +17% Yankees
8Jasson Domínguez singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Cody Bellinger scores.1–12
8Cody Bellinger triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge scores.1–11
8Aaron Judge singles on a line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. Austin Wells scores. José Caballero scores. Trent Grisham to 2nd.1–9
8Trent Grisham walks. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Austin Wells to 3rd. José Caballero to 2nd.1–7
6José Caballero doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. Austin Wells scores. Ryan McMahon to 3rd.1–6
6Ryan McMahon singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Austin Wells to 2nd.1–5
6Austin Wells walks.1–4
6Colton Cowser walks. Dylan Beavers scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Leody Taveras to 2nd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
