Rangers at Yankees
Last play · Corey Seager lines out sharply to center fielder Trent Grisham.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TEX 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 NYY
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -158
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Cody Bellinger scores. Amed Rosario scores. Ryan McMahon scores. (inning 6) — +46% Yankees
8Ryan McMahon singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter, deflected by pitcher Peyton Gray. Cody Bellinger scores.2–9
7Max Schuemann doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Sam Haggerty. Trent Grisham scores.2–8
6Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Aaron Judge to 2nd.2–7
6Aaron Judge singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. J.C. Escarra scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 2nd.2–6
6J.C. Escarra singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Trent Grisham scores.2–5
6Trent Grisham doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Cody Bellinger scores. Amed Rosario scores. Ryan McMahon scores.2–4
5Ezequiel Duran grounds into a force out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop Max Schuemann. Alejandro Osuna scores. Brandon Nimmo out at 2nd. Ezequiel Duran to 1st.2–1
3Ezequiel Duran homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
