Rangers at Yankees
Last play · Jasson Domínguez grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Yankees0%
TEX 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 6 – 0 NYY
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Evan Carter homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 3) — -14% Rangers
6Aaron Judge homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.6–1
4Corey Seager singles on a ground ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Andrew McCutchen scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.6–0
4Ezequiel Duran out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Jake Burger scores. Andrew McCutchen to 3rd.5–0
3Evan Carter homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Duran scores.4–0
3Ezequiel Duran doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Brandon Nimmo scores.2–0
1Corey Seager homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
