Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TOR 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 4 – 3 NYY
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+146 / -177
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Aaron Judge scores. (inning 7) — +38% Yankees
9Jesús Sánchez doubles (6) on a ground ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Ernie Clement scores.6–7
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Trent Grisham scores.5–7
7Cody Bellinger homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Aaron Judge scores.5–5
6Ernie Clement grounds into a force out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Lenyn Sosa scores. Daulton Varsho out at 2nd. Ernie Clement to 1st.5–3
5George Springer homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
4Paul Goldschmidt doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Max Schuemann scores.3–3
4J.C. Escarra out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Myles Straw. Anthony Volpe scores.3–2
4Ernie Clement homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
