Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Kazuma Okamoto grounds out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to first baseman Ben Rice.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TOR 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 5 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan McMahon homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Aaron Judge scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. (inning 4) — +38% Yankees
9Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Andrés Giménez scores.4–5
5Ben Rice homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Trent Grisham scores.3–5
4Ryan McMahon homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Aaron Judge scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–3
4Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Yohendrick Piñango scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.3–0
4Jesús Sánchez singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 2nd.2–0
4Yohendrick Piñango singles on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Daulton Varsho scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
