Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Amed Rosario strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees0%
TOR 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 0 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -166
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Wells challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Andrés Giménez walks. Ernie Clement scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd. Brandon Valenzuela to 2nd. (inning 7) — -19% Blue Jays
9Paul Goldschmidt grounds out, pitcher Louis Varland to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Cody Bellinger scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 2nd.2–1
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Aaron Judge. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.2–0
7Austin Wells challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Andrés Giménez walks. Ernie Clement scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd. Brandon Valenzuela to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
