Rays at Yankees
Last play · Aaron Judge flies out sharply to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
Win probability
Yankees0%
TB 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 1 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Richie Palacios singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham, deflected by pitcher Tim Hill. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd. (inning 8) — -39% Rays
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Cody Bellinger scores.4–2
8Ryan Vilade out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Carson Williams scores. Richie Palacios to 2nd.4–1
8Richie Palacios singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham, deflected by pitcher Tim Hill. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.3–1
8Jonathan Aranda doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.1–1
5Austin Wells homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
