Rays at Yankees
Last play · Aaron Judge homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Max Schuemann scores.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TB 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 0 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Max Schuemann scores. (inning 9) — +24% Yankees
9Aaron Judge homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Max Schuemann scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
