Guardians at Yankees
Last play · Cody Bellinger grounds out, first baseman Kyle Manzardo to pitcher Matt Festa.
Win probability
Yankees0%
CLE 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 5 – 4 NYY
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Paul Goldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. José Caballero scores. Ben Rice to 3rd. (inning 4) — +29% Yankees
8Travis Bazzana doubles (9) on a fly ball to right fielder José Caballero. Angel Martínez scores. Daniel Schneemann scores. Steven Kwan scores.9–4
7José Ramírez doubles (17) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Brayan Rocchio scores.6–4
5José Ramírez doubles (16) on a line drive to right fielder José Caballero. Patrick Bailey scores. Brayan Rocchio to 3rd.5–4
5Travis Bazzana out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Steven Kwan scores.4–4
4Paul Goldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. José Caballero scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.3–4
4Kyle Manzardo homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. José Ramírez scores.3–2
3Paul Goldschmidt homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Ben Rice scores.1–2
3Brayan Rocchio out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Patrick Bailey scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
