Guardians at Yankees
Last play · José Caballero pops out to shortstop Brayan Rocchio.
Win probability
Yankees0%
CLE 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 2 NYY
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rhys Hoskins homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. José Ramírez scores. (inning 4) — -26% Guardians
9Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Steven Kwan. Paul Goldschmidt scores.5–4
8Rhys Hoskins singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. José Ramírez scores. Kyle Manzardo to 3rd.5–3
6Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Steven Kwan. Ben Rice scores.4–3
6José Ramírez homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
4Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: José Caballero homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
4Rhys Hoskins homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. José Ramírez scores.3–1
2Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Kyle Manzardo homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
