Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Trent Grisham flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Yankees0%
BOS 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 NYY
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (23) on a line drive to right center field. (inning 1) — -12% Red Sox
9Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Nick Sogard scores. Jahmai Jones to 2nd.6–0
9Nick Sogard doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Andruw Monasterio scores.5–0
9Andruw Monasterio singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Caleb Durbin scores. Adley Rutschman scores.4–0
5Eli White walks.2–0
1Wilyer Abreu homers (23) on a line drive to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
