Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Trent Grisham grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Yankees0%
BOS 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 5 – 3 NYY
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 5) — -21% Red Sox
5Trent Grisham homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.5–3
5Willson Contreras homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Wilyer Abreu scores.5–2
4Spencer Jones doubles (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–2
4Andruw Monasterio homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
3Willson Contreras singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Ryan Weathers. Jarren Duran scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.2–1
3Wilyer Abreu grounds out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Connor Wong scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd.1–1
1Ben Rice homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
