Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Mickey Gasper lines out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BOS 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 8) — +29% Yankees
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Trent Grisham scores. Anthony Volpe scores.1–6
8Trent Grisham singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Amed Rosario scores.1–3
8Cody Bellinger homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
6Willson Contreras doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–1
5Paul Goldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. José Caballero scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
