White Sox at Yankees
Last play · Miguel Vargas flies out sharply to center fielder Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Yankees100%
CWS 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 3 – 9 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -192
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colson Montgomery homers (18) on a line drive to right center field. Chase Meidroth scores. Randal Grichuk scores. (inning 3) — -25% White Sox
9Sam Antonacci homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.5–10
8Colson Montgomery homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.4–10
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.3–10
5Paul Goldschmidt homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Anthony Volpe scores. Ali Sánchez scores.3–9
5José Caballero singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Cody Bellinger scores. Jasson Domínguez scores.3–6
3Colson Montgomery homers (18) on a line drive to right center field. Chase Meidroth scores. Randal Grichuk scores.3–4
2Ali Sánchez singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Anthony Volpe scores.0–4
2Anthony Volpe triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Everson Pereira. José Caballero scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
