Reds at Yankees
Last play · Eugenio Suárez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
CIN 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 4 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+233 / -292
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Jones scores. Anthony Volpe scores. (inning 2) — +21% Yankees
8Anthony Volpe singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Spencer Jones to 2nd.0–5
2Ben Rice homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Jones scores. Anthony Volpe scores.0–4
2Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
