Reds at Yankees
Last play · Paul Goldschmidt flies out to right fielder Noelvi Marte.
Win probability
Yankees0%
CIN 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 6 – 1 NYY
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+164 / -201
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Caballero. Edwin Arroyo scores. Blake Dunn scores. (inning 3) — -23% Reds
8José Caballero grounds into a force out, third baseman Sal Stewart to second baseman Edwin Arroyo. Cody Bellinger scores. Jasson Domínguez out at 2nd. José Caballero advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by second baseman Edwin Arroyo.10–2
8Dane Myers doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Sal Stewart scores.10–1
8Sal Stewart doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Spencer Jones. Jose Trevino scores. Edwin Arroyo scores. Blake Dunn scores.9–1
5Spencer Steer homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. JJ Bleday scores. Nathaniel Lowe scores.6–1
5Sal Stewart out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder José Caballero. Blake Dunn scores.3–1
3Sal Stewart doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Caballero. Edwin Arroyo scores. Blake Dunn scores.2–1
1Paul Goldschmidt homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
