Reds at Yankees
Last play · Anthony Volpe lines out sharply to center fielder Blake Dunn.
Win probability
Yankees0%
CIN 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 1 NYY
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Noelvi Marte scores. (inning 4) — -38% Reds
9Noelvi Marte hits a ground-rule double (4) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Steer scores.4–1
4Tyler Stephenson homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Noelvi Marte scores.3–1
3Ben Rice homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
