Tigers at Yankees
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees0%
DET 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 0 NYY
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Anthony Volpe singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kevin McGonigle, deflected by pitcher Drew Anderson. (inning 9) — +42% Yankees
11Zach McKinstry singles on a ground ball to right fielder José Caballero. Riley Greene scores. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Spencer Torkelson scores. Zach McKinstry to 3rd. Throwing error by catcher Ali Sánchez.6–2
11Spencer Torkelson walks. Kevin McGonigle scores. Riley Greene to 3rd. Hao-Yu Lee to 2nd.3–2
9Anthony Volpe singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kevin McGonigle, deflected by pitcher Drew Anderson.2–2
9Amed Rosario homers (9) on a line drive to left field.2–1
6Riley Greene out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Dillon Dingler scores. Kerry Carpenter to 3rd.2–0
3Kevin McGonigle homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
