Twins at Yankees
Last play · Tristan Gray called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees100%
MIN 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+194 / -240
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (24) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 3) — +23% Yankees
7Trent Grisham out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Keaschall. José Caballero scores.2–5
7José Caballero singles on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Ryan McMahon scores.2–4
4Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Kody Clemens scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.2–3
3Ben Rice homers (24) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores.1–3
1Trent Grisham homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Kody Clemens homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
