Twins at Yankees
Last play · Jasson Domínguez grounds out, second baseman Kody Clemens to first baseman Royce Lewis.
Win probability
Yankees0%
MIN 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 6 – 4 NYY
Twins led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell homers (12) on a line drive to left field. (inning 7) — -17% Twins
8Josh Bell homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Kody Clemens scores.11–4
8Kody Clemens singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Austin Martin scores.9–4
8Byron Buxton out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Luke Keaschall scores.8–4
7Josh Bell homers (12) on a line drive to left field.7–4
5Cody Bellinger doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.6–4
5Max Schuemann homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. Ryan McMahon scores.6–3
4Jasson Domínguez homers (4) on a line drive to right center field.6–1
4Trevor Larnach homers (6) on a line drive to right field.6–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
