Pirates at Yankees
Last play · Brandon Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
PIT 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 5 – 8 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 3) — +25% Yankees
3José Caballero hits a ground-rule double (11) on a line drive down the left-field line. Jasson Domínguez scores. Ryan McMahon scores. Austin Wells to 3rd.5–8
3Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Cody Bellinger scores.5–6
3Esmerlyn Valdez homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.5–4
2Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Jared Triolo scores.3–4
2Jared Triolo hits a ground-rule double (12) on a fly ball to left-center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.2–4
1Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Cody Bellinger scores.0–4
1Paul Goldschmidt reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Nick Gonzales. Ben Rice scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Nick Gonzales. Throwing error by left fielder Bryan Reynolds.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
