Cardinals at Yankees
Last play · Trent Grisham lines out sharply to right fielder Jordan Walker.
Win probability
Yankees0%
STL 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 3 NYY
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+202 / -250
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Church homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Blaze Jordan scores. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 8) — -65% Cardinals
8Alec Burleson homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. JJ Wetherholt scores.13–7
8Jimmy Crooks homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. José Fermín scores.11–7
8Nathan Church homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Blaze Jordan scores. Masyn Winn scores.9–7
7Luis García Jr. homers (24) on a line drive to right center field. Trent Grisham scores.6–7
7José Caballero homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.6–5
7Ryan McMahon homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.6–4
5Trent Grisham homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.6–3
5Austin Wells homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan McMahon scores.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
