Pirates at Yankees
Last play · Pirates challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Ryan O'Hearn grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Yankees100%
PIT 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 0 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jasson Domínguez doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 7) — +22% Yankees
7Anthony Volpe singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jasson Domínguez scores.0–2
7Jasson Domínguez doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Cody Bellinger scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
