Pirates at Yankees
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. pops out to first baseman Jacob Gonzalez.
Win probability
Yankees0%
PIT 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 2 – 0 NYY
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+167 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (30) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan McMahon scores. Austin Wells scores. (inning 7) — +49% Yankees
10Jake Mangum singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Billy Cook scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd.5–3
10Jared Triolo singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Nick Gonzales scores. Billy Cook to 2nd.4–3
7Ben Rice homers (30) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan McMahon scores. Austin Wells scores.3–3
7Nick Gonzales homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.3–0
5Jacob Gonzalez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Nick Gonzales scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
