Cardinals at Yankees
Last play · Nathan Church challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Nathan Church called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees100%
STL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 2 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -192
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Lombard Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +10% Yankees
5George Lombard Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
2Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
