Cardinals at Yankees
Last play · Ali Sánchez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees0%
STL 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 0 NYY
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Wetherholt doubles (11) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Bryan Torres scores. Jimmy Crooks scores. (inning 5) — -28% Cardinals
6Iván Herrera challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jazz Chisholm Jr. walks. Ben Rice scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd. Heliot Ramos to 2nd.3–1
5Iván Herrera hits a ground-rule double (19) on a line drive to center field. JJ Wetherholt scores.3–0
5JJ Wetherholt doubles (11) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Bryan Torres scores. Jimmy Crooks scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
