Braves at Yankees
Last play · Ryan McMahon out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Luis García Jr. scores.
Win probability
Yankees100%
ATL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 7 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Austin Wells scores. Amed Rosario to 3rd. (inning 9) — +42% Yankees
10Ryan McMahon out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Luis García Jr. scores.2–3
9Ben Rice singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Austin Wells scores. Amed Rosario to 3rd.2–2
9Austin Wells doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. George Lombard Jr. scores.2–1
9Matt Olson homers (33) on a line drive to center field.2–0
8Austin Riley homers (14) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
