Braves at Yankees
Last play · Drake Baldwin lines out to right fielder Spencer Jones.
Win probability
Yankees100%
ATL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-141 / +131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Lombard Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — +18% Yankees
9Dominic Smith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Spencer Jones. Mike Yastrzemski scores.4–5
8Ben Rice homers (32) on a fly ball to center field.3–5
8Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
7George Lombard Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
5Austin Wells doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón.2–3
5Spencer Jones triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. George Lombard Jr. scores.2–2
5Jim Jarvis singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.2–1
5Mike Yastrzemski doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Mauricio Dubón scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
