Braves at Yankees
Last play · Ryan McMahon strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees0%
ATL 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 8) — +32% Yankees
10Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to right fielder Spencer Jones. Ha-Seong Kim scores.2–1
8Trent Grisham homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
7Matt Olson homers (34) on a line drive to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
