Mariners at Yankees
Last play · Cal Raleigh strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
SEA 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 0 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan McMahon singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis García Jr. scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Spencer Jones to 2nd. (inning 7) — +44% Yankees
7Trent Grisham singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Spencer Jones scores. Ryan McMahon scores. Austin Wells to 2nd.1–4
7Ryan McMahon singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis García Jr. scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Spencer Jones to 2nd.1–2
6Randy Arozarena homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
