Mariners at Yankees
SEA5–
NYY10Last play · Julio Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop George Lombard Jr. to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Yankees100%
SEA 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 5 – 5 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Jones doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Austin Wells scores. Ben Rice scores. (inning 3) — +23% Yankees
8Trent Grisham homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. George Lombard Jr. scores.5–10
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. walks. Ben Rice scores. Spencer Jones to 3rd. Heliot Ramos to 2nd.5–8
7Ben Rice singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Trent Grisham scores.5–7
7Trent Grisham doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. George Lombard Jr. scores.5–6
5Spencer Jones doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Ben Rice scores.5–5
5Trent Grisham homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
5Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Randy Arozarena scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.5–3
3Spencer Jones doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Austin Wells scores. Ben Rice scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.