Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Brett Bateman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TOR 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Spencer Jones homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 2) — +20% Yankees
5Alejandro Kirk singles on a ground ball to right fielder Spencer Jones. Brett Bateman scores.1–3
4José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brett Bateman. George Lombard Jr. scores. Trent Grisham to 3rd.0–3
2Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Spencer Jones homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
