Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Trent Grisham strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees0%
TOR 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 0 NYY
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Ben Rice scores. (inning 8) — +22% Yankees
8Luis García Jr. homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Ben Rice scores.4–3
8Nathan Lukes homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.4–1
7Austin Wells singles on a line drive to center fielder Brett Bateman. George Lombard Jr. scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd.3–1
5Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Alejandro Kirk scores. George Springer to 3rd.3–0
4Charles McAdoo singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.2–0
1George Springer singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
