Mariners at Yankees
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees0%
SEA 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 0 NYY
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+152 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Weston Wilson homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — -15% Mariners
2Weston Wilson homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
