Astros at Yankees
Last play · Nelson Velázquez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
HOU 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger doubles (22) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd. (inning 7) — +31% Yankees
8Luis García Jr. homers (28) on a fly ball to right field. Ben Rice scores.3–9
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. doubles (16) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Cody Bellinger scores. Spencer Jones to 3rd.3–7
7Spencer Jones singles on a line drive to right fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Luis García Jr. scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.3–6
7Cody Bellinger doubles (22) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd.3–5
7Christian Walker reaches on a fielding error by shortstop George Lombard Jr. Jose Altuve scores. Daulton Varsho to 3rd.3–3
4Trent Grisham grounds into a double play, second baseman Jose Altuve to shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Austin Wells to 3rd. José Caballero out at 2nd. Trent Grisham out at 1st.2–3
4Daulton Varsho homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
1George Lombard Jr. grounds out to first baseman Christian Walker. Luis García Jr. scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
